Another holiday forecast; this one calling for “precision” purchasing

Consulting firm Accenture published a forecast for the 2011 holiday shopping season.  You can read highlights from their report by clicking here. 

Implications:   This study is important because it goes beyond the “what,” to ask “why?”  Consumers are citing less discretionary income, less money in savings, and an increase in living expenses as reasons they will shop—but with caution—this gift-giving season.

How will your respond to these attitudes toward holiday spending?  If the consumer is going to be more careful, that means they’re going to do more research in advance.  If you haven’t already, now is a great time to re-evaluate your website and make sure it provides maximum assistance to the research-hungry consumer with minimum effort and time invested.

Also, ask yourself whether your fourth quarter messaging appeals to the things that are most important to your target consumer.  It’s important to be high on the shopper’s consideration list, especially when they’re doing lots of research in advance.  (When the consumer is shopping for the products or services you sell, it’s important to be very high on their consideration list; they will probably buy before they make it to store #6 or 7.)

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.

Grandparents increasingly lend help to their adult family

Earlier today, I wrote a posting about how changes in the definition of retirement might alter the way we behave after leaving a primary career/job.  (I say it that way because now, many retirees will be taking a fresh job/career path after initial retirement.)  [See “The Changing Definition of Retirement” by clicking here.]

Another story from Phil Lempert and the Food Marketing institute today discusses how today’s grandparents are helping their adult children manage… including helping out financially, providing alternate daycare, and more.  Click here to see that story.

Implications:   Boomers re-defined each of the life stages as they moved through their teen-age and adult years.  We should not be surprised that they are changing the definition of grandparenthood, too. 

In what ways can you cater to this important consumer group?  Are your “family” offers inclusive of the grandparent who is frequently bringing the children to your store, restaurant or theme park?  Is your company offering products or services that might make the grandparent’s efforts a bit easier?

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.

Pre-occupied with Wall Street

If you’re feeling like your income has lost some of its spending power since the beginning of the recession, you’re not alone.  A story from the New York Times this morning explains that incomes have fallen since the recession is widely held to have ended, due largely to the persistently high unemployment rate.  (Click here to see that story.) 

This issue, combined with pervasive coverage about gridlock in Washington, extreme compensation for many of the country’s CEOs, and higher food and fuel prices, has led to outright economic frustration.  

Yesterday, there was a story in the New York Times about the group Occupy Wall Street and several variations of the movement that have sprouted-up around the country.  Click here to see that story.

Implications:   The NY Times story acknowledges that the “Occupy” movement started very small, but hints that uprisings also started small in places like Tunisia and Egypt this spring, and throughout much of Europe over the summer.  I’m nowhere near ready to watch for a citizen-led uprising here in the U.S.  But smart government officials—and businesses—are noticing this period of discontent.

It might be more important than ever to communicate the logic of your business to your customers.  If there is a price increase, why is it justified?  If you’re a public company and paying dramatic bonuses, what is the logic?  More often now, consumers are not just re-thinking the dollars they spend; they are more closely scrutinizing the very companies they spend with.  If you’re running a fundamentally sound and fair business (which I assume to be the case)… transparency is your friend.

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.

Will the changing definition of retirement alter food shopping?

That was the question posed by FMI’s Facts, Figures and the Future, and as published in today’s newsletter from Phil Lempert.  Click here to see it.

Implications:   Of course, the question is rhetorical, and the answer (for many consumers) is “yes.”  But not all of the changes in planned retirement behavior have to do with the recession.   Many of the changes have more to do with the fact that we’re going to live longer.

In 1950, when someone was getting old enough to retire, the common fear was often, “Oh no!  What if I die?”  In 2011, with lifespans for many folks reaching into their 80’s, 90’s and beyond, the more common concern is likely, “Oh no!  What if I live?!”  Once upon a time, a nest egg had to last five or ten years.  Today, it might have to last thirty or more.

That’s why people will likely look for ways to be re-hired after they’re retired.  A small income to supplement their nestegg (investments, social security, etc.) is a no brainer.  And their spending is likely to be adjusted, also, to reflect their evolving financial situation.

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.

We interrupt all this negativity for a little more good news

While many experts were focused on stock market gyrations and gloomy headlines about the world economy and Washington gridlock, consumers spent much of September shopping.  That is, except those who were going back to work.

Today’s Marketing Daily is among the sources that reported stronger-than-expected sales for retailers in September.  You can read that story by clicking here.   Even better than that news is this:  The number of new jobs created in September was better than forecast.  (I refer to that news as “better” because higher employment affects more than just one month.)  See the Washington Post version of that story by clicking here.

Implications:   … and I’ve said it a thousand times.  If you focus only on the news out from Pennsylvania Avenue and Wall Street, you’ll drive yourself crazy.  Focus, instead, on that micro-economy that exists between your company and its consumers. 

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.

UPDATE: Revenue projections for the holidays

Yesterday, I offered a post about the increase in temporary holiday hires of some major retailers (see the story immediately below).  Today’s Marketing Daily offers a story to support that anticipated growth, citing projections from the National Retail Federation.  Click here to see the story.

Implications:   The projections are nice to hear, but revenue growth is unlikely to be spread evenly among holiday retailers.  Those who do the best job of connecting (communicating) with their target consumers and satisfying the benefits they seek are going to have a much different holiday season than those who do not.

How are you preparing?

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.

Stores hiring in anticipation of the holidays

Many retailers expect the holiday season of 2011 to be a bit of a paradox; in spite of clues that the economy is still teetering, they think that shopping activity could enjoy an uptick.  That’s according to a story in today’s New York Times.  So, there is likely to be a slight increase in the numbers of temporary retail workers hired for the holidays… or at least hiring at levels that were similar to last year.  Click here to see the story.

Implications:   Instead of having turbulent economic news cause people to avoid shopping for the holidays, is this the year that people indulge because they’re fatigued by the turbulent news?  What do you anticipate in your local market?  Are you planning to add staff or services to satisfy any additional traffic your company might enjoy?

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.

Trend site recognizes increasing tendency to trade-in and trade-up

Trendwatching.com is a consistently reliable source for trends across a wide scope of business categories.  And the October Trendwatching newsletter holds a series of stories having to do with our desire to trade-in.  Click here to see it.

Implications:   Re-commerce is nothing new; you’ve probably traded-in a car to buy a new one, or sold one house to buy another.  But this story does a good job of pointing-out how consumers are more inclined, lately, to trade-in where a variety of new categories are concerned, and using a variety of tools.  Many local pawn shops are well stocked, Craig’s List is quite populated with goods for sale, and companies advertising that they’d like to buy your unwanted gold and silver are plentiful.  

Is there a way that folks are trading-in as a means of trading-up to your product or service?  How might you facilitate that move?  And besides discounting the price of a new purchase, what other benefits does the consumer receive by trading in?  (Are you messaging about those benefits?)

At our house, I recently enrolled in a class I wanted to take.  But before I did it (it has to do with a hobby of mine), I decided to sell some power tools and sports equipment I hadn’t been using.  It wasn’t just that I didn’t want to take the tuition out of our household budget; I built the goal of de-cluttering into the process… not wanting to go further with one interest until I off-loaded some of the things that had to do with other activities.

Also, respect that this isn't just about consumers who want to turn their possessions into cash; they simply recognize that their property now has a value... if not to them, then perhaps someone else.  I've recently seen furniture store ads asking people to trade-in their mattress, which is then donated to a shelter for the homeless.  And I've seen a department store campaign that invites shoppers to trade in their winter coats; their old coat goes to charity, and the consumer receives the reward of a discount toward their new jacket purchase.  Again... can you apply this principle in your company, and do good as you do well?

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.

Workforce gaps narrowed by rough economy

Recently, the New York Times published an article about how the labor market has been equalized a bit, in terms of gender equality, as an outcome of the recent recession.  Click here to see the story.

Implications:   It was about a year ago that I suggested—in response to another NY Times story—that the glass ceiling was eroding… as a byproduct of the labor market and recession.  [See “Are women still hitting the glass ceiling,” from October 1, 2010.]

At that time, logic held that companies were not just cutting jobs, but payroll; the higher your paycheck, the bigger target you had on your back.  It only holds that if men were paid more for various jobs, they were more attractive targets as companies tried to trim payroll.


What impact might this shift have at the consumer level?  Might his and her roles change a bit when it comes to the shared decision-making process?  

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.

Relatively speaking, life insurance seems to be skipping a generation (so far)

In what might be seen as a values shift among younger consumers, fewer people under the age of 45 are buying life insurance, according to research from Mintel Comperemedia… and as quoted in today’s Marketing Daily.  Click here to see the story.

Implications:   Are you expecting sales to Generation X and Millennials to behave the same as when the Matures (pre-WWII) and Baby Boomers (post-WWII) defined the market?  Don’t count on it.  In addition to marrying later and having children later, many of these consumers are under the impression that they can wait until later in life to protect life’s treasures.

Are you seeing a similar shift in your line of business?

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.

Daily deals: “Value” is not just “cheap”

Today’s New York Times held yet another article suggesting gloom and doom for the so-called “daily deal” coupon providers, such as Groupon, Living Social, and others.  Click here to see the full story.

Implications:   As I wrote back in April [see “Daily Deals go mainstream”], daily deals are not all bad.  It’s just that you have to have a plan that will yield lots of first-time trial, but in a way that you can retain those customers over time, and gradually build a relationship that allows you to sell your product or service at a reasonable margin.

Don’t think of daily deals as a win-or-lose ad campaign.  Ask whether you can convert those lowball consumers into consistent spenders over time.  Without thinking ahead, you’re setting yourself up for a campaign that succeeds… at your expense.

Don’t just focus on the daily deal.  What comes next?

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.

Home improvement retailer rethinks the consumer

A story from today’s Marketing Daily offers a one-on-one with the SVP for marketing and advertising from Lowe’s.  Modifications in the company’s online presence and media messaging are a reflection of recent research, and discoveries about how the consumer is looking at home improvement.  Click here to see the story.

Implications:   If you’ve been considering how recent shifts in the economy and the real estate market might be impacting consumer attitudes, you’re not alone.  Some of America’s major retailers are watching the consumer more closely than ever.   

Are you selling to the same consumer you did five years ago?  Do they buy for the same reasons they used to?  What questions could you ask—and in what form—to find out what their latest hot buttons are?

Mike Anderson, for the Elm Street Economics consumer trends blog. A service of The Center for Sales Strategy, Inc.