It's official: Fuel efficiency has gone from fad to trend

One of the challenges facing any trend watcher is trying to distinguish between what is a fad, and what is a trend. A fad is a short-term spike… something flares fast, but then passes relatively quickly (think Pet Rocks, disco and big hair). A trend is more of a tectonic shift; an indication that the landscape is being altered, and the way we’ve been navigating it needs to be re-considered.

When I opened the New York Times this morning, an event that had been foreshadowed by countless tremors finally hit the Richter scale with a thud. GM had announced the closure of four North American truck and S.U.V. plants. (Stay with me, here; sometimes, it is important to state the obvious.)

While this move is not particularly surprising in a period of skyrocketing fuel prices… it is a benchmark announcement. (Chrysler and Ford have also announced reductions in large-frame vehicle projection over the past two years.) Because we’ve been suffering from dramatically escalating gas prices for quite some time now… and still, just a couple of short years ago, trucks and S.U.V. sales remained an amazing—if not leading—profit center for most manufacturers. But it seems a tipping point has finally been reached, where people (and car companies) no longer believe that gas prices will return to a level that which consumers previously considered, “reasonable.”

Implications: To be sure, car manufacturers increased their output of fuel-efficient vehicles after the oil embargo of the 70’s, and in response to the gas price spike of the early 90’s. But now, in dramatic fashion, the industry is signaling that the days of the gas-guzzler-as-commuter-car may finally be over. It is official: Fuel efficiency is no longer a fad.

Can you save the consumer a trip to the store by helping them “buy big” during each visit? Do you offer online planning tools that require less driving around for comparison shopping? Do you offer delivery of products which the consumer previously hauled home in an oversized S.U.V…. a vehicle which they might no longer own?

Mike Anderson