Generally speaking, not enough physicians

A quick check of almost any medical school will lead you to one diagnosis: We’re headed toward a shortage of general practice physicians. A recent story from Kansas (Wichita Business Journal) indicates that 86% of medical students there plan to pursue a specialty… leaving just 14% who will be content to serve as “family doctors.” A similar story from San Jose (Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal) warns of the same condition: There are not enough new primary care candidates in the pipeline to meet the needs of an aging population. Partly because so many medical students are electing to pursue a specialty… but also due to the fact that more than a quarter of the country’s current primary care doctors are age 55 or older, which means they’re nearing retirement.

Implications: I’m not going to join the politically-charged debate on healthcare here. But I am going to point-out that health care, like any other field, is subject to the laws of supply and demand.

Most “specialty” care providers make more money than most general-practice physicians, which is one big reason why so many students head in that direction. According to the San Jose story, salaries for a new primary care doctor start at about $150,000 a year, compared with dermatologists who make about $300,000 and orthopedists making about $400,000.
According to a specialist I spoke with today, the hours are often more stable for a specialist, too. (For example, “I accept referral appointments on M-W-F, and I do surgeries on Tuesdays and Thursdays.”)

So, the American medical consumer should prepare to have increasing difficulty getting an appointment with the family doctor in the years to come. As that supply of physicians goes down, expect the prices for services rendered to go up, further aggravating an already complex set of healthcare cost issues.

If you’re in the business of fitness, self-health, or nutrition… are you positioned as an alternative to traditional office visits?

Mike Anderson

See also: “How the debate on health care might affect you,” 7/31/09.

See also: This story from CBS News, broadcast in late July, about the emerging primary care shortage.

Watch CBS Videos Online