In a keynote presentation that was as much show business as it was social observation, Jeremy Gutche spoke at Association for Consumer Trends forum in San Francisco. Jeremy is from Trendhunter.com, and the focus of his talk was “Unlocking Cool and Exploiting Chaos.”
Jeremy pointed out that it’s not enough to be the first, or even to be the best at something. For his example, he cited a company that invented the laptop word processor, grammar checkers, built-in dictionaries and even started building PDAs in 1994: Smith Corona. They were the first to introduce many product innovations, they were among the best at their core competency, and they were bringing in $500 million in 1989. So, according to Gutche, they thought they could afford to take a “wait & see” approach to the idea of personal computing. They thought that if this new “computer thing” really took off, they could simply buy-up a computer company “down the road.” In fact, they did buy into ACER at one point… but sold their interest. A few years later, Smith Corona went bankrupt, and ACER went on to become the 4th largest computer manufacturer in the world.
Gutche used the example to warn that if you are afraid of failure, you are headed for it. Failure should be pursued, embraced, and celebrated… because failure means you’re trying new things, and new ideas lead to breakthrough products. “A decent proportions of your projects must fail. Success can often lead to complacency… and complacency will be the architecture of your downfall.” Successful organizations not only innovate to "optimize" their position on their hill… but they are also constantly looking for bigger and better hills.
Frankly, when I first visited his website (TrendHunter.com), I thought it was bit of an unorganized mess… with thousands of contributors tossing in a multitude of random observations. (Some not-so-random; a few contributors almost seem to have either an agenda or bias of some sort, and a few even appear to be more product-placement than social observation. And a few of the submissions are a bit less than tasteful.) But there’s more to the site than initially meets the eye. Jeremy has created a community in which countless observers all over the planet are submitting ideas for consideration. Later, Jeremy and his team meld these observations into something a bit more useful… sharing those more distilled components at a companion web site, JeremyGutche.com. There, you will find promotional materials selling Gutche’s services, but also some videos and slide decks that distill a diverse collection of input into something that’s easier to get your head around. I don’t find all of the material entirely useful—again, some of it is designed more to entertain than inform—but if you’re looking for a place to consider a wide range of possibilities, it’s worth a visit from time to time.
Here’s a link to the video Gutche used as the closing summary of his presentation.
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