STORES magazine (the periodical of the NRF) offered a number of consumer and retail trends for 2010. The website headline suggested that, “Surviving retailers will see less competition in 2010.” Click here to see the online version of the story.
Implications: Reading the STORES piece, I am reminded that the line between a “trend” and a “prediction” can sometimes seem a bit blurry; that the whole topic of “trends” can be subjective... and subject to spin.
For example, the rash of store closings in 2009—and the anticipated mergers taking shape right now—are optimistically interpreted as leading to “…less competition in 2010.”
The coming year might leave fewer players on the retail battlefield. But I doubt there will be less competition. In a world where consumers are trimming entire product categories from their consideration list (less self-indulgent purchasing, less out-of-home dining, reduced use of credit) compared to a few years ago… retailers are likely to find themselves competing not only with other vendors in their category.
They’ll be competing with other categories.
People are not just deciding which GPS device to buy. They’re deciding whether to buy a GPS or a new mobile phone. Instead of which restaurant to go to, they’re trying to decide whether to dine out… or dine at home instead so they can afford to go out to a theatre or nightclub later in the week. They’re weighing whether to invest in their retirement fund… or put that money toward a couple of college courses to help the, deal with urgent changes in their career.
I’ll break with tradition, and offer this prediction (note that I make no attempt to disguise it as a trend):
In my opinion, 2010 will see apples competing with oranges.
Mike Anderson
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment