When is a recession over?

Once upon a time, an end-of-recession declaration was left to experienced economists at the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, or in academic institutions. In the wake of this recession, however, that decision will likely be made household-by-household, as we are reminded by a story in yesterday's Media Post Marketing Daily.

Implications: If you are still feeling unsettled about your job prospects (unemployed or worried about becoming unemployed), or if you are still concerned about your personal finances, it is hard to imagine that you, personally, would proclaim the recession to be over (regardless of what a political pundit or financial expert might say).

It is widely accepted that this recession was different from earlier economic events, because its effects were so broad and deep. Likewise, this recovery is likely to be different from any before it. There could be fits-and-starts, double dips, and unusually prosperous sectors. It’s a good time to stay tuned-in to your core consumers… and recognize that different segments you serve could emerge from the recession in different ways, and some sooner than others.

Mike Anderson